Paper Roses in the last at Kelso tomorrow

Our 5yr old mare Paper Roses ran a couple of times in bumpers last season, and came quite close at Sedgefield in March when runner up to Malcolm Jefferson's Only Orvieto. On the form book of those that have ran, she would be the pick, but things are seldom that simple.

Scobie runs the course and distance winner Tokaramore, who is also a half sister to a bumper winner. The dam More Likely will be familiar to local racegoers as she was a useful chaser who won 4 times at Kelso. Tokaramore carries a 7lb penalty for that success, while former Dodlands teenage protégé (and 2015-16 NH Conditional Champion) Craig Nichol takes the mount on Kelso bumper second Sophie Olivia. Both are promising types but the the form doesn't look quite a good as that of our mare.

Which leaves the minefield of unraced, well bred sorts. Immediate attention is drawn to the progeny of Flemensfirth (Fleminator), Presenting (Iwalktheline) and Milan (Topham Bay).
Fleminator is a half sister to 2 winning mares (including a bumper), and makes plenty of appeal on breeding - see how she shapes up in conformation terms in the paddock. Nicky's Iwalktheline is out of a mare who is a half sister to high class hurdler Back in Front. She is a fourth foal, cost e16,000 last summer but is the first of her siblings to run. Lucinda's Topham Bay's full brother did not progress after showing initial promise as a bumper, and is best watched.

Which leaves a couple of fillies by relatively new sires whose oldest progeny are 4yr old. The shrewd Crawford Bros. make the trip across the Irish Sea to run The Vocalist, a daughter of Recharge. The sire has yet to have a winner - no panic stations as he has not had many runners so far - but the mare has bred the winners of several races including bumpers. The reverse can be said about the sire of Off The Hook-  Getaway (with one winner so far but by sire of the moment Monsun), who in typical Coolmore fashion had a large book of mares in his first few seasons. Nick Alexander bought the Getaway produce at the Tatts Ireland Sale in August 2015. Her unraced dam is a half sister to numerous jumping winners, and has bred a bumper second to date.

As we've hinted, a paddock inspection can support (well made, strong, looking well) or rule out (small, unfurnished, backward) the unraced sorts, but purely on breeding Fleminator and Off the Hook make appeal, while the Crawford Bros (The Vocalist) don't bring a horse over just for experience.

Nevertheless, Paper Roses is very well and has been working well with the most forward of our string, and must go close tomorrow.